Blog post
June 24, 2019

Machine learning – just how predictable are we?

More importantly, what ethical considerations should be applied when using data and algorithms to target consumers?

Algorithms are already being used to help determine who’s approved for a loan, who is the best candidate for a job and which criminal is least likely to reoffend. But, how reliable are they… and what ethical considerations should be applied when using data and algorithms to target consumers?

Machine vs human – who is the winner?

In 2015, a study at MIT suggested that an algorithm could predict someone’s behaviour faster and more reliably than humans can. The Data Science Machine, created by a master’s student in computer science, was able to derive predictive models from raw data automatically – without human involvement. 

It’s fairly common for machines to analyse data, but humans are typically required to choose which data points are relevant for analysis. In three competitions with human teams, the machine made more accurate predictions than 615 of 906 human teams. And while humans worked on their predictive algorithms for months, the machine took two to 12 hours to produce each of its competition entries.

Fear not, this so-called fourth industrial revolution – where advances in computers, and artificial intelligence bioengineering are converging to change the way our world works – doesn’t spell the end for humans. It does, however, present an enormous opportunity for brands, marketers and communications professionals to more accurately understand consumers. Machines can be incredibly helpful, not to mention accurate, in analysing large amounts of data to inform decision-making with data.

Goodbye market research, hello Facebook

Historically, marketers and communicators have spent hours eavesdropping on research groups and pouring over market analysis in order to predict how humans will think and respond to a brand, product or service. With thanks to the emergence – and now domination – of social media networks, a whole new world of focus groups has materialised.

The way people talk on social media can be very different to how they talk in person. This means that the learnings from traditional focus groups often contrast greatly with what’s found from social media monitoring. Imagine, the power of combining these intelligent machines with a market research group of two billion-plus Facebook users.  Not only does this present the opportunity for to analyse consumer insights on scale, it also allows for insights to be measured in real-time. In an increasingly digital age where attention spans are short and audiences are fickle, the ability to be nimble with marketing and communications has never been more important.  

Listening to what works

Take for example, the work of make-up brand, Maybelline. When it launched its Hyper Sharp Liner in Hong Kong in July 2011, the product quickly became the brand’s No.1 liner. By 2013, the cosmetics market in Hong Kong had become increasingly competitive, with the emergence of new players with comparable products as well as competition from many other international cosmetics brands.

With the emergence of new players with comparable products as well as competition from many other international cosmetics brands, Maybelline decided to relaunch the Hyper Sharp Liner with a one-month integrated campaign that aimed to leverage off the increasing use of social media by the product’s target audience (15- to 25-year-old females).

By gauging the changes in the amount of buzz in social media about the Hyper Sharp Liner before and after the relaunch, Maybelline sought to understand how effective their strategy was. All the while, they mapped this against competitors’ buzz shares, measuring brand awareness and product perception for Maybelline and its competitors across major forums, blogs, social network Services, microblogs, and video and review sites.

This research was used to refine Maybelline’s strategy, and through the one-month communication campaign, Maybelline achieved a projected sell out of units. The a of the Hyper Sharp Liner, and also a significant increase against the average number of unit sold in 2012.
With the use of social media evolving at an increasing pace, this strategy verified social media channels significantly contributed to the transiting consumers from online to offline.

The ethical tightrope

The recent Facebook fallout highlights the scale of the moral dilemma today’s marketers must navigate – how much should we know about our consumers, and what role should ‘chief’ information, marketing and data officers play in ethical practices? While the field of big data is relatively new, the historic definition of ethical marketing should still apply: as a whole, brands should not engage in practices that result in negative or unsatisfying customer experiences.

This is something that is widely accepted and reinforced by peak bodies such as the Australian Marketing Institute. Whether a customer is left with a feeling of discomfort following a unsolicited telemarketing call, a door-to-door salesman or Facebook sharing data with a third party, the responsibility should fall with the company executives giving the directive – generally speaking, within the marketing and communications departments. The Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal is an important reminder of our obligation to consumers, and that with the power that data affords, comes greater responsibility.

Data or bust

It is now hard to imagine a marketing and communications industry that doesn’t rely on data to inform strategy, new product development and campaigns. Much of what took place in marketing and communications, even as recently as a decade or so back, was based on assumption. We *think* that this product would be of interest to this audience, so we *figured* the best way to tell them about it would be mostly via a TV ad campaign.

But data is now essential for any smart and savvy marketer or communicator, and presents the opportunity to communicate with consumers with a level of insight that has never been more accurate or accessible.

While human behaviour is still not completely predictable, one thing that is for sure: the continued collection and analysis of data will certainly make us more predictable.

While affording brands enormous opportunity, this unprecedented access to consumer data must come with a movement of responsibility that will ensure the predictability of consumers is melded with ethical marketing practices.

Andrea Walsh is CIO at Isentia. She is an experienced technology and digital solutions leader, and has led led large (100-plus) IT and digital teams in delivering high profile, multi-million dollar business outcome solutions across the Asia Pacific region. She is a supporter of FITT (Females in IT and Telecommunications), a not-for-profit network which aims to inspire women to achieve their career aspirations and potential at all levels and disciplines within ICT.

Originally featured in CIO NZ.

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The Australian public’s reaction to government reforms and leaders was especially eventful. Debates about campus safety by the Royal Commission, a tax deal between Labor and the Greens unsettling the finance and property sectors, and a speech on “monoculture” by Pauline Hanson shifting opinion polls in an unexpected way; were three complex stories that saw audiences taking different sides, leading to many perspectives and angles.

We used Isentia's Lumina to track the different viewpoints, key people, and stories with the largest volume and audience. Over four weeks (22 June to 17 July), we found 62 unique perspectives and nearly 900 media items across these three stories.

Key Stories, Key Drivers

Here’s a quick overview:

The Royal Commission on campus anti-semitism

The Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion’s hearings on university campuses was the biggest story by far. In less than a week, it drew 33 perspectives and 453 media items, reaching over 628k audiences. The story’s size came from the many institutions involved—student groups, representative bodies, and the federal government—each offering their own view on the same testimony.

Pro-Palestinian advocacy groups had the widest reach, making up about a third of all coverage. Spokespeople like Yasmine Johnson from Students for Palestine and Nasser Mashni from the Australia Palestine Advocacy Network told the commission their campus protests are a legitimate justice movement. They also raised concerns that criticism of government policy is being confused with antisemitism, which they say limits open debate.

Jewish student and staff groups also received significant coverage, making up about a fifth of the total. The Australian Union of Jewish Students described campuses where some students feel hesitant to attend and highlighted gaps in how universities handle complaints and support those affected. Most of this coverage came from wire services and was widely shared across news outlets like The Australian or the Midwest Times.

The federal government provided a third perspective, with similar coverage. Education Minister Jason Clare said universities had been slow to act and announced plans to tighten governance standards. This includes clearer anti-racism policies covering both antisemitism and Islamophobia. Reports also noted that TEQSA, the regulator, warned universities about outside groups joining campus protests, and the government’s antisemitism envoy suggested universities could face funding cuts if they do not do enough.

The Labor-Greens Tax Deal

The second-biggest story was more focused but still managed to stir strong reactions. Labor’s deal with the Greens to close a borrowing loophole for self-managed super funds, in return for Greens support on capital gains tax and negative gearing changes, led to 22 perspectives and 232 media items, reaching nearly 177k audiences.

The government, supported by the Greens, presented the deal simply — it closed a loophole that allowed wealthy investors to use their super funds to compete with first-home buyers at auctions. Treasurer Jim Chalmers cited a 2014 recommendation to support the change, and Greens treasury spokesman Nick McKim called it a win against "wealthy property investors."

The Greens, however, took a tougher stance and received similar coverage for saying the deal was only a partial win. They argued that allowing existing arrangements to continue would let Labour protect wealthy investors rather than renters, and said the housing crisis would now be "squarely of Labor's design." This shows that support from a governing partner does not always mean they are satisfied, as Country News highlighted.

Finance and business groups pushed back with nearly as much coverage. The Self-Managed Super Fund Association and the Australian Finance Industry Association said the borrowing rules did not pose a systemic risk and argued that regulators should focus on "aggressive marketing" and property spruiking, not legitimate investors. The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry warned that the wider capital gains tax changes could hurt business investment. ABC News gave the most detailed account of this perspective, noting the sector was "surprised" by how the deal was made.

Pauline Hanson’s monoculture speech

This story had the fewest perspectives (just seven) but still reached nearly 236k people through 210 media items. That’s a bigger audience than the tax story, which had three times as many viewpoints.

The story began when Pauline Hanson used a National Press Club speech to argue that Australia should replace multiculturalism with a single "monoculture." She cited Paul Hogan and the Socceroos as examples. The backlash was quick and unexpected and Hogan himself called her a "pelican" and said her views were racist. His response ended up shaping the story more than her monoculture speech.

What makes this story notable is what happened afterward. Two polls, Newspoll and Redbridge, showed One Nation’s primary vote dropping by about two points (Dairy News Australia) and Hanson’s personal approval falling ten points into negative territory. Labor regained a narrow lead and Labor minister Murray Watt quickly described the numbers as a "reality check,". This framing spread almost as widely as the original speech, as the Bendigo Advertiser reported.

The speech and the poll results are really one story seen from three sides — Hanson’s message, her critics’ reactions, and Labor’s use of the polling. Each angle received similar coverage, showing that the speech missed its mark and gave the government a useful talking point.

How does this inform PR & Comms Strategy?

First, the number of perspectives in a story is important. A story with many viewpoints, like the antisemitism hearings, needs a different monitoring approach than one with just a few, because the loudest voices might not always be the most important.

Second, pay attention when several perspectives are about the same size, as in the tax deal. If no single viewpoint stands out, the issue is likely still being debated. It’s a good idea to check back after some time instead of treating the first coverage as the final answer.

Third, compare any polarising message to the Hanson example before recommending it to a client. The numbers show that a divisive message can get attention but still turn public opinion against the speaker.

Conclusion

What links these stories is how much is lost when they are reduced to just two sides. The antisemitism hearings, the tax deal, and Hanson’s polling drop were all more complex than their main headlines suggested.

That’s why it’s valuable to track a story by its different perspectives and key drivers. See what Lumina can reveal for your industry or clients, and check out more analysis like this on the Isentia blog


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Blog
Who really shaped Australia’s latest social cohesion debates?

See how Isentia’s Lumina tracked 62 perspectives across 3 major Australian stories, revealing how media coverage really spreads and who ends up controlling the narrative.

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There is a new frontier where public perception is shaped: Large Language Models. Right now, LLMs are answering critical questions about your organisation. What are they saying? And more importantly, which sources are shaping those answers?

To navigate this landscape, public relations professionals don't need generic tools, but rather technology that speaks their language, and addresses the realities of a changed media and informational landscape.

That is why we're unveiling Lumina AI View, the latest addition to our intelligent suite of AI tools from Isentia. Trained specifically on the workflows and challenges of modern PR & communications, Lumina AI View helps you understand exactly what AI knows about you, and how it learned it.

A new standard for AI visibility

AI View tracks your citation strength and source quality alongside those of your competitors, giving you a clear view of where you hold authority and where you have gaps.

Lumina AI View maps your AI reputation from the ground up, allowing you to:

  • See which sources matter: When tools such as ChatGPT or Gemini discuss your organisation, which outlets do they cite? Track your source footprint over time and view the impact of key target media on how you’re discussed. We measure your citation strength and source quality alongside those of competitors, giving you a clear view of where you have authority and where you have gaps.
  • Gain industry-specific insight: Your competitors get cited from Financial Times and Bloomberg. You get cited on Reddit. Each brings opportunity – and risk. Discover how you measure up against industry standards, and target the sources that actually influence how AI represents you.
  • Catch narrative shifts early: AI responses change when new sources appear, sentiment shifts, or old controversies resurface. Get alerts when citation patterns change suddenly, before they impact the way you’re perceived by stakeholders.

Measure your progress: From media monitoring to full media intelligence

Lumina AI View is built on the principle that insights get stronger with repeated measurement. To help you maintain a clear view of your reputation, our proprietary scoring system provides regular updates that show you:

  • Evolving trends in how sources cite your organisation
  • Competitive standing and benchmark metrics
  • Where models differ in information presented, and sources cited 

Whether you run it weekly, on-demand, or whenever you need a check-in, patterns will emerge, trends will become clear, and you will build a baseline that makes any sudden narrative changes both comprehensible and the prerequisite to action.

Lumina AI View is part of Lumina AI, a comprehensive suite of AI tools built specifically for communicators. Our Lumina suite evolves traditional media monitoring into narrative intelligence, enabling you to truly understand how perceptions form, evolve, and impact your reputation.


Get in touch to register your interest and see what Lumina AI View can do for you.

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Blog
Introducing Lumina AI View: AI Visibility Built for PR & Comms

Lumina AI View, the latest in Isentia’s AI suite, is trained on PR & comms workflows to help you understand what AI knows about you — and how it learned it.

Ready to get started?

Get in touch or request a demo.